Focus: July 2011

Taliban have dismissed the London Conference as propaganda. But, with $140 million pledged for the Reintegration efforts in Afghanistan in London, Diary Khan tries to make more sense of what are delegates in London saying?

One thing is very clear, this conference wouldn’t have been called had things been great in Afghanistan. But then, there are others who say that in counter insurgencies, things take a really bad turn before getting better. That is where Afghanistan stands at the moment.
Much is being said about:

Reintegration Fund
You need money to buy people. This conference is also a fund raising campaign to lure mid and low level Taliban away from the fighting factions, so that they can contribute towards ‘Good Governance” in their land.. Japan is expected to be the major donor. But the question is how long will the money last to keep the purchased fighters with you? A year? Six months? Hamid Karzai feels he needs foreign support for his security forces for another 15 years!

Get the Taliban Talking
Karzai is not enjoying in London. A good 8 years into the war in Afghanistan, US and its allies like the idea of trying to settle with the Taliban. They feel it is the key to better governance in Afghanistan.

Ever since US and Nato have realized that Taliban and Al Qaeda are 2 separate phenomena, pressure has multiplied on Karzai to take steps that would open the way for face to face talks between Afghan officials and Taliban leaders. Perhaps, that is why just a day before this conference, Karzai has had the UN remove 5 from a sanctions list banning international travel and freezing funds. Taliban foreign minister Wakeel Ahmad Muttawakil among them.

Nobody is clearly saying , what will talks with Taliban be about? But apparently it’s a bid to bring as many Taliban fighters on Karzai’s side and take part against extremist Taliban. This would make the job of giving control to Afghan government over provinces under ISAF control to an extent doable.
Easier said than done!

Persuade Afghanistan’s Neighbors to do more
The fact that Pakistani military has clearly said that it won’t launch another operation for at least a year, will give Taliban leadership time to decide upon reconciliation with Karzai’s government.

While it is not clear if Pakistan can play a role in reconciliation of Afghan Government with certain Taliban factions, there seems to be an expectation in that regard from Pakistan.

In the concluding press conference, David Miliband, UK Foreign Minister appreciated Pakistan’s contributions towards improving the air in Afghanistan.

Expert’s Take on the Conference

Renowned Political Analyst, Hasan Askari Rizvi tells me that the next one year is crucial in Afghanistan. But for the time being, this gathering has looked at ways of not only improving things for the common Afghanis but also realize the Obama dream of beginning to get out of Afghanistan by July 2011.